CertipickFR

The Certipick Standard v1

The standard

Eight rules, enforced in code rather than in a charter. None relies on a tipster's good faith, or ours.

  • 1
    Odds captured by the server, never typed.
  • 2
    CLV published for every pick.
  • 3
    Flat stake: one unit per pick.
  • 4
    No ratio published under 50 settled picks.
  • 5
    Drawdown and standard deviation shown.
  • 6
    Voids counted and shown.
  • 7
    Picks immutable once posted, chained ledger anyone can verify.
  • 8
    Timestamped, reasoned and public arbitration.

CLV

CLV = odds taken × fair closing probability − 1. The fair probability removes the reference bookmaker's margin across all outcomes of the market, from prices captured in the two minutes before kick-off. A CLV of +3% means the pick was taken 3% above the market's final price.

Reference price

Pinnacle when it offers the outcome, otherwise the median of at least three bookmakers, exchanges excluded. The line (handicap, total) is always the one offered by the source, to the quarter point.

Settlement

Flat one-unit stake. Quarter lines are settled in two halves. An exact tie on the line voids the pick; voids are still counted. A match with no usable result goes to arbitration, published with its reason.

The 50 threshold

Below 50 settled picks, voids excluded, no ratio is published: no ROI, no hit rate, no average CLV. Picks remain visible one by one.